Football Betting
by Tom Wilkinson
When most people begin their football
betting they usually start by looking at the best teams
and saying to themselves, “this team is fantastic,
I’ll just bet on them.” The problem with that
way of thinking is that just because a team is doing well
in the standings does not mean they will cover the spread.
The opposite is true as some teams that are at the bottom
of the standings straight up, are against the spread winners.
When the football betting season
begins we want to concentrate on teams that are performing
at a level that is unexpected. Some ranked teams may be
playing poorly while some teams that were not expected
to do well are looking great. This very quickly can give
you value when betting for, or against these teams. Football
betting linemakers, and the public, are very slow to change
their opinion of teams early in the season. It sometimes
takes quite a while for the perception of a team to change.
This gives you a chance to pounce on a weak line. During
the 2003 NFL season we had a perfect example of that as
the Oakland Raiders were very highly thought of coming
into the season but turned into a huge flop. The 2004
season had another example, as the Kansas City Chiefs
were thought to be Super Bowl contenders but were a point
spread disaster.
Sometimes football betting value
will point you in different directions. For example, let’s
say a very good team like New England or Philadelphia
gets off to a slow start. They may be an excellent play
in the following weeks for the simple reason that they
should get back to playing to their normal level eventually.
The same thing can occur when teams get off to good starts
that really may have benefited from turnovers, good breaks,
soft schedule, etc. Very often the breaks will even out
and the team comes back to where they were supposed to
be playing. You have to pick your spots carefully when
going against a hot team though, so it is not something
you want to do on a regular basis.
Another place to look for football betting point spread
value is in the line. Having multiple places to bet your
games can give you an extra ½ point or a full point
on many occasions. The oddsmaker for the most part does
a pretty good job and many games finish right around the
number. A few extra wins that would have been pushes,
and pushes that would have been losses can make a huge
difference when betting football. That can really affect
your bottom line at the end of the year.
When betting football it is always to your advantage to
get as much value and all the advantages that you can.
That may be in terms of the betting line or it may come
from public perception. Hopefully when you make your bets
this football season you can find some point spreads that
are to your liking.
|
